next up previous contents
Next: Psuedo-Inverses Up: A Projections Approach Previous: The Three Dimensional Case

Probability Theory

Probability Theory, at least in the standard approach due mostly to Kolmogorov, is essentially the study of certain real-valued set functions, enrichened by the near mystic complexity of Independence/Dependence relationships. I will give a brief synopsis of this development.

We begin with a Ring of sets, say tex2html_wrap_inline1099 . This is a set of sets which is closed under the symmetric difference gif and the intersection. Note that closure under these two operations guarantees closure under all combinations of set operations gif. An Algebra is simply a Ring with a Unit element. This is simply a set (remember, elements of the Ring are sets) which acts as the identity function on any other element of the Ring under intersection. Note that every ring contains the empty set, which is our identity under union. If these closure properties hold not only when combining pairs (and hence, any finite number) of sets, but also under countably infinite combinations, the Ring (or Algebra) is called a tex2html_wrap_inline1103 -Ring (or tex2html_wrap_inline1103 -Algebra). tex2html_wrap_inline1103 -algebras are also often called Borel Algebras. The classic example of a tex2html_wrap_inline1103 -algebra is the set of all subsets (of a given set).

Next, we define a measure as a mapping from a tex2html_wrap_inline1103 -algebra to the non-negative real line. Such a function is called Additive if the measure of the union of any two disjoint `` tex2html_wrap_inline1103 -subsets'' is the sum of their measures. If this property holds under countable (but still pair-wise disjoint) unions, the measure is said to be tex2html_wrap_inline1103 -additive.

A set endowed with a tex2html_wrap_inline1103 -additive measure is a Measure Space.

Now we are ready to build our probability theory.

A Probability Space is simply a Measure Space such that the measure of the entire space is 1. This is generally notated as the triplet tex2html_wrap_inline1119 representing the set tex2html_wrap_inline1121 over which the tex2html_wrap_inline1103 -algebra tex2html_wrap_inline1125 is defined as the domain of P, the measure.

This is enough to develop classical probability theory. We can call the elements of tex2html_wrap_inline1121 the Elementary or Simple Events, the elements of tex2html_wrap_inline1125 the Compound or Complex Events, and P the Probability Distribution.

This only allows us abstract, set-theoretic events and outcomes. We need to develop Random Variables to do quantitative modelling. We define a Random Variable (``RV'') as a mapping from tex2html_wrap_inline1121 to tex2html_wrap_inline715 . This is written, for an RV X,

eqnarray687

Note that these can, and almost always will, be vector-valued Random Variables, though I will refer to them as Random Variables for generality. Linear Combinations of Random Variables can be defined as follows, given two RV's X and Y:

eqnarray693

Lastly, we note that

displaymath1097

defines a probability measure over tex2html_wrap_inline1145 . Thus, a Random Variable can be thought of as defining a Probability Space over tex2html_wrap_inline1145 . In fact, it is possible to go back the other way. It can be shown that, given such a Probability Measure over tex2html_wrap_inline1145 , there must exist an tex2html_wrap_inline1119 and X which induce it. So it would seem that we can associate the measure over tex2html_wrap_inline1145 , rather than the mapping from tex2html_wrap_inline1119 to tex2html_wrap_inline1159 , with the RV. See [Eaton] for a more in-depth development.


next up previous contents
Next: Psuedo-Inverses Up: A Projections Approach Previous: The Three Dimensional Case

Scot Free Kennedy
Sat Sep 13 00:27:51 PDT 1997